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Ear to the ground
04/10/2024
With the US Federal Reserve having cut interest rates by 0.5% at their last meeting just a couple of weeks ago, the market is clawing over all pieces of economic data released for insight as to when and by how much the next move could be. With the
Monthly Update
30/09/2024
There was only real one story in equities this month and that was China, although this was reserved for the final week of the month. In an attempt to revive economic activity and keep alive the chance of achieving 5% growth this year, the Peoples Bank of China announced a number of changes aimed at improving liquidity and sentiment.
Ear to the ground
27/09/2024
After the US Federal Reserve stole the limelight last week with their 50 basis points interest rate cut, it was the Chinese who were at the centre of attention this time. In an attempt to shore up confidence, they released a plethora of policy support measures as they look to revive economic activity and hopefully keep alive the chance of achieving 5% growth this year.
Ear to the ground
20/09/2024
By the time the Federal Reserve (the Fed) met to discuss interest rates, it was no longer a case of will they or won’t they, but how much would they decide to cut by. The market was very much torn as to whether that cut would be by 0.25% or 0.50% and in the end they plumbed for the latter. This was the first rate cut seen in the US
Ear to the ground
13/09/2024
This week was a busy one for economic data. In the Eurozone we saw the European Central Bank (ECB) decide to cut the deposit rate by a further 0.25%, to 3.5%. This was very much in line with consensus expectations and marks the second cut seen this year. The ECB reiterated that they remain committed to bringing inflation back to
Ear to the ground
06/09/2024
After weaker than expected US employment data in recent weeks, along with comments made by Governor Powell at the recent Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, eyes were firmly focussed on non-farm payroll data. Whilst August was
Monthly Update
31/08/2024
If you looked at equity indices at the start and end of the month only you could be forgiven for believing that it had been a relatively quiet month. How wrong would that assumption be.
Ear to the ground
23/08/2024
All eyes are focussed on Jackson Hole this week, in particular Jerome Powell, as investors and economists alike look for further guidance as to when we may see the first interest rate cut in the US. That cut now looks imminent, with September the most
Monthly Update
31/07/2024
Equity markets were a mixed bag during July, with a wide dispersion of returns seen. At the top of the table were UK equities, in particular mid and small companies.
Ear to the ground
26/07/2024
Whilst there were economic data releases for the market to get their teeth into, this week has been one where markets have been very much driven by corporate earnings releases. In the US we saw the S&P 500 post a daily loss in excess of 2%, the first
Ear to the ground
19/07/2024
Busier week for data and where better to start here in the UK, where, at the time of writing, the summer appears to have finally arrived. How long it will last is anyone’s guess. Key out this week was the latest inflation data. This showed that consumer
Ear to the ground
12/07/2024
There was good news for the UK economy this week, which grew faster than expected in May. Although a lagging indicator, it was good all the same to see an expansion of 0.4% posted, double the consensus forecast of 0.2%. Retailers and wholesalers
Ear to the ground
05/07/2024
In the UK there has been one focus only this week and that is on the General Election. The result is now in and is very much in line with expectations, with perhaps the biggest surprises being in Scotland where the SNP had a poor showing and the Reform party perhaps taking more seats than expected.
Monthly Update
30/06/2024
It was a rather mixed month for asset class returns during June, none more so than within equity markets. In local currency terms, we saw quite a divergence with, for example, the S&P 500 returning almost 3.5% whilst the FTSE 250 index was in negative territory by almost the same amount.
Ear to the ground
28/06/2024
This was a much quieter week in terms of economic data being released. In the US the focus was on the PCE (personal consumption expenditures) index, being the US Federal Reserve’s (the Fed) preferred measure for inflation, in particular core PCE which excludes the more volatile components of food and energy.
Ear to the ground
21/06/2024
Ready, steady, not quite yet. This week saw the Bank of England meet to set interest rates. Unlike the European Central Bank, Canadians or Danes, they weren’t quite ready to cut interest rates, and held at 5.25% as forecast.
Ear to the ground
07/06/2024
This week we saw two western central banks take the plunge and cut their interest rate. First up we had the Bank of Canada, who beat their southern neighbours to the table and reduced by 0.25% to 4.75%.
Monthly Update
31/05/2024
May was a positive month for UK fixed income returns. It was the more interest rate sensitive fixed income asset classes which were the stronger performers, including investment grade bonds.
Ear to the ground
17/05/2024
All eyes were on UK jobs data last week, as forecasters looked for hints that the tightness in the market could be wearing off. It wasn’t to be however.
Ear to the ground
10/05/2024
It was a big week for the UK in terms of economic data being released. Although a lagging indicator, it was good to see the UK economy exit recession in the first quarter of 2024.
Ear to the ground
03/05/2024
Very little economic data from the UK this week to attract the attention. Perhaps the most headline grabbing release was the Nationwide Housing Prices survey to April which showed month on month values fell 0.4%, whereas the consensus forecast had been for a rise of 0.2%.
Ear to the ground
26/04/2024
Focus was on the Bank of Japan this week as they met to discuss interest rate and monetary policy. As expected, they decided to keep their short term interest rate unchanged at 0%-1%.
Ear to the ground
19/04/2024
Inflation data was the key focus of attention for UK investors this week. Year on year, the consumer price index rose by 3.2%. This was higher than the consensus forecast of 3.1% but below the February reading of 3.4%.
Ear to the ground
12/04/2024
Whilst we have seen a plethora of economic data this week there can be no doubt that stealing the show was US inflation data. The annual rate increased for the second consecutive month in March, rising to 3.5%.
Ear to the ground
05/04/2024
Eyes were focussed on US economic data releases this week, with little coming out of the UK. There was positive news for the US economy with the release of manufacturing data to March.
Monthly Update
31/03/2024
Investors remained firmly fixated on economic data during March, looking for indications when central banks may look to make their first interest rate cut.
Ear to the ground
28/03/2024
After the flurry of central bank activity last week, the economic calendar has been a little more sedate. In the UK there has been little data to breakdown. The final figure for fourth quarter economic growth 2023 was negative as expected and therefore did little in terms of moving markets.
Ear to the ground
22/03/2024
This week was one of central bank domination. First up we had the Bank of Japan who, after eight years of negative rates, hiked their short term interest rate from -0.1% to a range of 0%-0.1%.
Ear to the ground
08/03/2024
UK economic data releases took a back seat in what was Budget week. In terms of the predictions for inflation and economic growth announced, it was pleasing to hear that the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) now forecast that the economy will grow by 0.8% in 2024, up from the previous forecast of 0.7%.
Monthly Update
29/02/2024
Investors remained focused on the disinflation theme through February. Inflation proved to be sticky, as many commentators had predicted, struggling to make that last leg back down towards the 2% target, which so many developed market central banks have set for them.
Ear to the ground
01/03/2024
Very little economic data out of the UK this week, with the Nationwide House Price Index the only real topic of discussion. Year on year, we saw the first increase in the last 12 months, rising 1.2%.
Ear to the ground
23/02/2024
Despite the half term holidays there has been enough to keep eyes on this week. In the UK we saw the release of the GfK Consumer Confidence data for February. This was a little weaker than expected, which is perhaps surprising given that we are now seeing real wage growth in the UK.
Monthly update
31/01/2024
January was a mixed month for asset class returns. Some of the exuberance from December was unwound with investors thinking they were a little bit ahead of themselves in terms of how quickly interest rate cuts would come.
Ear to the ground
16/02/2024
After a quiet week on the data front last week, this week has proved anything but. In the UK we have heard about the jobs market, inflation, growth, and retail sales.
Ear to the ground
09/02/2024
After the excitement of the US jobs data last Friday, where 353,000 jobs were added, way above the consensus forecast of 180,000, this week has been very quiet on the economic data front.
Ear to the ground
02/02/2024
It was the Bank of England’s turn this week to vote on interest rates and, in line with consensus forecast, they voted to leave the base rate unchanged at 5.25%.
Ear to the ground
26/01/2024
Eyes were on US economic growth this week, with advanced figures released for the fourth quarter of 2023. Whilst the rate of growth was lower than that seen in the third quarter, it came in above consensus forecast.
Ear to the ground
19/01/2024
This week was one providing the Bank of England with mixed messages. Early in the week we saw wage inflation data which continued to decline on a year on year basis. Average earnings including bonuses rose 6.5% in 3 months, year on year to November.
Ear to the ground
12/01/2024
There has been enough economic data out this week to keep the market scratching their heads as to when the first interest rate cut will be, and by how much.
Ear to the ground
05/01/2024
After excitement through December that interest rates look like they will be cut in the major developed markets during this year, data out this week has perhaps reminded us that nothing is necessarily plain sailing.
Monthly Update
31/12/2023
December was a positive month for western developed market asset classes. Comments from central bank monetary policy meetings, in particular that of the US, were the key driver of market performance.
Monthly Update
30/11/2023
The Fund posted a return of 3.18% for November, behind the sector average return of 3.86%.
Monthly Update
31/10/2023
The Fund posted a return of -2.53% for October, performing in line with the sector average return of -2.52%.
Ear to the ground
13/10/2023
This week was one for inflation data, in particular from the US, as the market continues to try and interpret whether we have reached the terminal Fed Funds rate for this cycle. Fortunately or unfortunately, depending on how you look at it and are positioned, the data came out stronger than expected.
Ear to the ground
06/10/2023
A difficult market for assets this week, with particular pressure seen at the long end of yield curves, as they continued to steepen. With the Bank of England and US Federal Reserve having left base rates on hold at their last meetings, shorter term yields have remained relatively anchored.
Monthly Update
30/09/2023
The Fund posted a return of 0.06% for September, outperforming the sector average return of -0.50%.
Ear to the ground
29/09/2023
Eyes were focussed on the latest core PCE (personal consumption expenditures) data from the US, a figure seen as the preferred measure of inflation for the US Federal Reserve. Whilst we clearly still have positive inflation in the country, it at least continues to move in the right direction.
Ear to the ground
15/09/2023
It was a busier week for economic data this week. Starting in Europe we had the European Central Bank (ECB) meet to set interest rate policy. The market was relatively divided ahead of it, with some market commentators expecting no move whilst others expected a 0.25% hike.
Ear to the ground
01/09/2023
With UK economic data thin on the ground focus fell on the Nationwide House Price index this week. This showed that house prices had fallen 0.8% in August, larger than the consensus forecast fall of 0.3%.
Monthly Update
31/08/2023
The Fund posted a return of -0.94% for August, outperforming the sector average return of -1.34%.
Ear to the ground
04/08/2023
We saw a small spike in equity market volatility this week, but for once the predominant driver wasn’t central banks.
Monthly Update
31/07/2023
The Fund posted a return of 2.18% for July, outperforming the sector average return of 1.79%.
Ear to the ground
21/07/2023
I wonder what we are going to talk about this week? That’s right, you guessed it, inflation. And rightly so. The latest release of UK inflation data caught the market, forecasters and investors on the hop this week.
Ear to the ground
14/07/2023
Not a week appears to go by where we aren’t discussing inflation. Despite our best efforts to find something else to discuss, we again start with that topic, given the impact that it has had on markets this week.
Ear to the ground
07/07/2023
Markets succumbed to a bout of weakness in the second half of the week, caused by the content of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes from their last meeting. The FOMC are responsible for interest rate setting in the US.
Ear to the ground
30/06/2023
A quieter week for data on both sides of the Atlantic this week. We did hear from US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell however, speaking at a conference on financial stability, where he reinformed that a strong majority of rate setters in the US still expect two or more rate hikes by the end of the year.
Monthly update
30/06/2023
Japanese stocks were strong performers in the month, with the Nikkei reaching a 33 year high. They continued to be buoyed by the prospect of the Bank of Japan maintaining its ultra loose policy.
Ear to the ground
23/06/2023
It is difficult to put pen to paper, or should I say fingers to the keyboard, these days without making reference to central banks. In the previous week it was the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank who were in the limelight.
Ear to the ground
16/06/2023
This week was another big one for central banks, with both the European Central Bank (ECB) and US Federal Reserve meeting to set interest rate policy. As expected, the ECB rose by 0.25%, bringing the rate of main financing operations to 4%, the deposit rate to 3.5%.
Ear to the ground
09/06/2023
This week could perhaps be defined as one of mixed messages and about turns. Starting with Canada, we saw the surprise decision by the Bank of Canada to raise the target for its overnight rate by 0.25% to 4.75%. The central bank had paused their hiking cycle, which we saw at their last two meetings.
Monthly Update
31/05/2023
The Fund posted a return of -0.94% for May, marginally underperforming the sector average return of -0.60%.
Ear to the ground
26/05/2023
The good, the bad, but hopefully not the ugly. The UK had news this week which quite nicely fits into all three categories. Starting with the good, we saw the International Monetary Fund (IMF) upgrade their economic forecast for the UK this week.
Ear to the ground
19/05/2023
Economic data has been thinner on the ground over the last week. That which we have seen, however, appears to suggest that a US recession remains on the horizon. The US Conference Board Leading Economic Index declined for the thirteenth consecutive month in April. A level as low as the current one we are seeing has historically coincided with a recession.
Ear to the ground
12/05/2023
We start with the UK this week where, as expected, the Bank of England hiked rates by a further 0.25% to 4.5%. This was the 12th consecutive rise, with there again being split opinion, with 7 voting in favour of the hike whilst 2 voted in favour of no change.
Ear to the ground
05/05/2023
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) and European Central Bank (ECB) were back at the table this week to discuss interest rates once again. As expected, the Fed increased the Fed funds rate by 0.25% to the 5%-5.25% range.
Ear to the ground
28/04/2023
It was more about economic growth rather than inflation when it came to data released and there were a few surprises. In the US we saw the release of the first estimate for first quarter GDP.
Ear to the ground
30/04/2023
Main equity markets were in positive territory for the month, led by the UK. Within the UK market it was large-cap stocks which were the strongest performers, with investors taking a less sanguine view of the outlook for the UK economy. Mid and small cap counterparts however were not far behind. There were also positive returns for Japanese, European and US stocks, as represented by the TOPIX, EStoxx50 and S&P 500, but it was tougher going for the Hang Seng, which ended in negative territory.
Ear to the ground
21/04/2023
Further interest rate hikes were back on the cards in the UK after stronger than expected UK inflation data. Firstly we had average earnings figures where, excluding bonuses, we saw a 6.6% increase, year on year.
Ear to the ground
14/04/2023
There were mixed feelings surrounding the US inflation data released this week. Pleasing the market, we saw the annual rate of inflation fall for the ninth consecutive month to 5%, the lowest level recorded since May 2021. This was below the consensus forecast of 5.2%.
Ear to the ground
11/04/2023
Weaker economic data set the tone for interest rate expectations in the US last week. Firstly, we had the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI).
Ear to the ground
31/03/2023
After the events of the previous two weeks a quieter few days was probably in order. In the UK, economic data was on the lighter side. We saw UK house prices remain soft, with the Nationwide House Price Index declining 3.1% year on year.
Monthly Update
31/03/2023
The Fund posted a return of -2.26% for March, underperforming the sector average return of -1.02%.
Ear to the ground
24/03/2023
The central banks of the US and UK continued their battle against inflation this week, both lifting their key interest rate by 0.25%. This took the US Fed Funds Rate to 4.75%-5% and the UK base rate to 4.25%.
Ear to the ground
20/03/2023
There are some weeks when content for Ear to the Ground is hard to come by. This week is certainly not one of those weeks. We touched upon Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) in our previous edition. The UK arm was successfully sold to HSBC.
Ear to the ground
10/03/2023
This week we heard from Jerome Powell who provided his update to Congress. Here he confirmed that he was prepared to increase the pace of interest rate hikes if the data warranted this. He also commented on the fact that the most recent economic data had been stronger than they had expected, therefore the rate at which interest rate peaks, or terminal rate, was likely to be higher than had been expected.
Ear to the ground
07/03/2023
With February now drawn to a close, we provide a summary of market movements for the month rather than the usual Fund Focus, which will return next week.
Monthly Update
28/02/2023
The Fund posted a return of -0.77% for February, marginally underperforming the sector average return of -0.65%.
Ear to the ground
24/02/2023
Whilst the result was already known, the market keenly awaited the publishing of the minutes of the last US Federal Reserve meeting. These revealed that the majority of the policy setting committee members had voted in favour of a 0.25% hike.
Ear to the ground
17/02/2023
Here in the UK, a congratulations to the FTSE 100 which breached the 8,000 level for the first time. Despite weak earnings from Barclays, there were strong earnings posted by Centrica, whose principal activity is the supply of electricity and gas in the UK.
Ear to the ground
10/02/2023
The preliminary release for fourth quarter GDP in the UK showed that the UK economy stalled in the period. Although third quarter figures were revised down, showing a contraction of -0.2%, the flat figure meant that the economy narrowly avoided recession.
Ear to the ground
03/02/2023
I am very much at risk of sounding like a broken record, again, but… it was again a week when central banks around the world stole the limelight. In the US, the Federal Reserve raised the target range for the fed funds rate by 0.25% to 4.5%-4.75%. This was in line with market expectations.
Monthly update
31/01/2023
The Fund posted a return of 4.48% for January, outperforming the sector average return of 3.35%.
Ear to the ground
27/01/2023
A quieter week on the economic data front, with little out of the UK or the Euro area. In the latter there were numerous speeches made by ECB members which appear suggest that the central bank remains determined to continue raising rates to counter higher inflation.
Ear to the ground
20/01/2023
We start in the east this week, Japan in particular, where we had a number of announcements. Firstly, we had the Bank of Japan meet to decide on the level of interest rates. Here the decision was made to keep the rate on hold at -0.1%, which was in line with market expectations.
Ear to the ground
13/01/2023
This week we saw the World Bank make a change to its investment outlook for 2023. The organisation had previously forecast that the global economy would grow by 3% this year. They have now reduced this forecast to 1.7%. The brunt of the downgrade comes from developed markets, where they have reduced growth expectations from 2.2% to 0.5%.
Ear to the ground
06/01/2023
Some might have expected the first week back in 2023 to be a quiet affair. This has proved not to be the case, however. In the US we had the release of the December FOMC meeting. Whilst it could be argued that the press conference in December clarified the position of the central bank, the market is always keen to understand what was discussed at the meeting.
Monthly update
31/12/2022
The Fund posted a return of -0.08% for December, outperforming the sector average return of -1.10%.
Ear to the ground
16/12/2022
‘Follow the leader’! Or instead of a game of ‘Simon Say’s’, are we currently witnessing a game of ‘Powell Say’s’? This week was a week for interest rate decisions, with respective committees meeting in the US, UK and the EU. First up we had the US Federal Reserve who, as expected, raised interest rates by 0.5% to the 4.25%-4.50% range.
Ear to the ground
09/12/2022
It was the turn of Halifax to report weaker house prices this week, following a negative report by Nationwide last week. Halifax reported that house prices had fallen by 2.3% in the month of November, the largest drop since November 2008. In the US meanwhile, some economic data surprised to the upside.
Ear to the ground
02/12/2022
It has been a quieter one on the UK economic data front this week, especially in the UK. There was data out regarding the housing market and it was no real surprise to see a fall in both price and activity here. Mortgage approvals and mortgage lending came in lower than in the previous month and also below forecast. A weakness has been expected here as the threat of recession, the higher cost of living, including higher interest/mortgage rates, continues to bite.
Monthly update
30/11/2022
The Fund posted a return of 5.34% for November, outperforming the sector average return of 3.54%.
Ear to the ground
24/11/2022
A little quieter on the economic front this week. The release of the FOMC minutes from the previous meeting contained no real surprises and reflected very much what was said by Chair Powell in the post meeting press conference and statements made by other Fed governors since. The Minutes confirmed the Committee believe that it may now be appropriate to slow the pace of future increases in terms of magnitude of future rises.
Ear to the ground
18/11/2022
This week saw the release of the UK budget. It is being termed by some as being a ‘rescue’ budget and this is understandable given the forecasts made by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). They forecast that the economy will contract by 1.4% in 2023, before expanding 1.3% in 2024, 2.6% and 2.7% in the following two years.
Ear to the ground
11/11/2022
This week saw the preliminary release of UK economic growth, or lack of, for the third quarter. Initial figures showed the economy contracted by -0.2%, the first contraction we have seen since the first quarter of 2021. All sectors of the economy stalled/contracted, including services, production and manufacturing. As we reported last week, the Bank of England forecasted that we could be in recession until mid-2024, is this the start?
Ear to the ground
04/11/2022
This week as again been dominated by central bank actions. Here in the UK we had the Bank of England working busily. Firstly they auctioned their first tranche of government bonds as they looked to reduce their balance sheet holding of £838bn. They sold £750m of gilts which had a remaining maturity of between three and seven years.
Monthly update
31/10/2022
The Fund posted a return of -1.78% for October, underperforming the sector average return of 0.09%.
Ear to the ground
28/10/2022
A number of central banks have held their latest meeting to set interest rates. The ECB acted in line with expectations, increasing its policy rate by 0.75% to 1.5%. The ECB also offered hints as to the future direction of its rate setting. Whilst further hikes are expected to combat inflation, which is still deemed as being too high, the central bank suggested that pace of rate hikes may be slower moving forward.
Ear to the ground
21/10/2022
It is fair to conclude that this week has again been dominated by politics, with the resignation of Liz Truss stealing the headlines. This has been very well publicised in great depth and therefore we will leave it there. From an economic perspective in the UK, this week we saw the release of CPI to September. This came in at 10.1%.
Ear to the ground
14/10/2022
Eyes have been firmly focussed on the US this week as investors awaited the latest inflation print. Although a lagging indicator, the level on inflation in the economy is main factor driving the US Federal Reserve monetary policy.
Ear to the ground
07/10/2022
This week has very much been a to and fro between whether the US Federal Reserve are about to pivot and adopt a more dovish monetary policy stance, or perhaps less tightening stance would be a more appropriate way to put it. Investors are therefore focussing on every scrap of economic data which they can get their hands on.
Monthly Update
30/09/2022
Equity indices endured another difficult month in September. Although for now, on aggregate, corporate earnings appear to be holding up, there are concerns that the ever weakening economic growth outlook will eventually flow through. Weakness was particularly evident in areas of the market which would be considered more growth orientated, such as UK mid-cap, Chinese (via the Hang Seng) and US stocks.
Ear to the ground
30/09/2022
Do we ironically owe them an inadvertent thank you? This may appear to be a very strange suggestion in that, given the turmoil that their latest fiscal plans have brought, that we could even start to think that we owe this to Truss and Kwarteng. I am in no way taking any political sides here but bear with me on this one.
Ear to the ground
26/09/2022
Late last week we saw the first what was meant to be mini-Budget from Kwasi Kwarteng, the new UK Chancellor. Given the level and degree of announcements made however you could be mistaken for thinking that it was indeed a full budget. The tax cuts and levels of spending which the government have committed to are now very well publicised.
Ear to the ground
23/09/2022
Central banks took centre stage this week, with interest being set both in the US and here in the UK. The Federal Reserve were the first to the table, where they increased rates by 0.75%. This was in line with expectations, but some market commentators had touted a full 1% rise, a move adopted by Sweden earlier in the week. This takes US rates to the 3%-3.25% range.
Ear to the ground
16/09/2022
It is difficult to not sound like a broken record at the moment but we are currently within an environment which is very data sensitive, driving which way markets move next, at least in the short term. The case in point was made this week in the US. Inflation had been expected to come in at 8.1% year on year to August, but instead posted a reading of 8.3%. Markets did not take to this kindly, with the S&P 500 closing down 4.33% on the day.
Ear to the ground
09/09/2022
Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II devoted her life to serving her country and commonwealth. A truly inspiring leader, whose legacy will live on for generations. We give thanks for her years of service to the nation and beyond and express our condolences to His Majesty the King and the Royal Family at this difficult time.
Ear to the ground
02/09/2022
The US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell took markets by surprise at the Jackson Hole Symposium last week. Many market commentators had been expecting him to deliver something of a pivotal moment. A softer stance on monetary policy tightening, in particular interest rate hikes, was envisaged given the softer economic data coming through and fears of a recession. Instead, he came across as very resolute...
Monthly update
31/08/2022
The Fund posted a return of 1.17% for August, outperforming the sector average return of 0.52% due to strong underlying fund performance.
Ear to the ground
26/08/2022
The latest inflation forecast for the UK from Citi took the market by surprise this week. Updated for a further rally in gas and electricity prices, they believe that a further upside shift in inflation is highly probable and that CPI could peak at over 18% in January. This is some way above the 13.3% predicted by the Bank of England in their latest report.
Ear to the ground
12/08/2022
Droughts, blackouts and potentially an inflation top out. With the UK and Europe in the midst of another heatwave we are hearing of more hose pipe bans and of reservoirs drying up. In Europe the shortage has the potential to become the regions next big enemy. It is reported that water levels in Europe’s major rivers, including the Rhine have dropped to record levels. This means that certain ships are unable to navigate these waters. Eurostat estimates that shipping routes...
Ear to the ground
05/08/2022
This week was always going to be about the Bank of England and it indeed proved to be the case. The market fully expected that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) would raise rates by 0.5% to 1.75% and they delivered accordingly. This was the largest increase seen in 27 years. This move was supported by eight of the nine committee members, with the ninth preferring a 0.25% hike. They also kept up a pledge to act forcefully again if need, which potentially means that we could...
Monthly Update
31/07/2022
After a difficult year to date, UK fixed income enjoyed a stronger July in terms of performance. High inflation remains a concern from central banks globally, including the Bank of England. There was a much anticipated 0.5% hike in the base rate for the beginning of August and this was duly delivered, the base rate now standing at 1.75%. They now also forecast that inflation could reach a high...
Ear to the ground
29/07/2022
First and foremost, a huge congratulations to the England Lionesses for bringing football home after a very, very long wait! Something we might be a little bit more reticent to bring home however is the nation’s favourite cheeseburger, after McDonalds announced last week that it will see its first price increase in over 14 years. It wasn’t just a small increase either, with a 20% hike being imposed. The company is also to pass on the cost of higher fuel and ingredients onto...
Ear to the ground
22/07/2022
It ain’t half hot! In a week which saw record temperatures in the UK, it wasn’t just the weather which had us all a lot hot under the collar. UK inflation figures revealed that CPI had increased to 9.4% in June, the highest reading since 1982 and marginally above market forecasts of 9.3%. It is perhaps unsurprising to hear that fuel and food were the largest contributors to the increase. Perhaps the Bank of England Monetary Policy breathed a sigh of relief at the core...
Ear to the ground
15/07/2022
What goes up, must come down. But not quite yet! US inflation again surprised to the upside this week, with the release for June coming out at an eye watering 9.1%. This was up from 8.6% in May, above market forecasts of 8.8% and the highest reading since November 1981. Perhaps more concerning was that there were large increases across many components. Services (ex food & energy) prices rose 3.19%, goods (ex food & energy) prices rose 1.48%, food up 1.45% and energy up 2.98%.
Ear to the ground
08/07/2022
Politics have certainly been at the top of the agenda this week, with the resignation of Boris Johnson being the focal point. As should probably be expected however, the investment market response has been fairly muted. There was some sign of sterling strength following the announcement but markets soon reverted to business as usual.
Monthly Update
30/06/2022
UK fixed income struggled as an asset class through June,
Ear to the ground
24/06/2022
Not a week seems to go by where inflation isn’t in the headlines. This week...
Monthly Update
17/06/2022
There are some weeks when news and events...
Monthly Update
10/06/2022
This week could potentially best be described as a week of confirmation. The incree...
Monthly Update
31/05/2022
May was a difficult month for equity markets to make any headway...
Ear to the ground
26/05/2022
Economic data has been on the quieter side this week...
Summary of positioning
24/05/2022
By way of a summary, the Fund...
Ear to the ground
19/05/2022
Inflation again took centre stage in the UK this week,
Ear to the ground
13/05/2022
This week saw the release of preliminary...
Ear to the ground
06/05/2022
Central banks were back in the limelight this week. Sound familiar?
Monthly Update
30/04/2022
Major equity markets were predominantly...
Ear to the ground
29/04/2022
The market was caught off guard yesterday when US economic growth...
Ear to the ground
22/04/2022
This week saw the release of the latest economic
Ear to the ground
14/04/2022
Inflation again took centre stage this week with the release of key data for the UK and the US.
Ear to the ground
08/04/2022
This week saw the release of the latest minutes from...
Ear to the ground
01/04/2022
As inflation continues to surprise to the upside and the cost of living increases,
Monthly Update
31/03/2022
Major equity markets were again mixed during the month. Most initially fell...
Ear to the ground
25/03/2022
This week saw the release of UK inflation figures,
Ear to the ground
18/03/2022
Central banks were at the fore this week,
Ear to the ground
11/03/2022
The conflict between the Ukraine and Russia continued to take centre stage this week. With no sign...
Monthly Update
28/02/2022
The Fund posted a return of -1.51% for February, outperforming the sector average return of -1.74%.
Ear to the ground
24/02/2022
Unfortunately the main news this week is the very sad events which are now developing in the Ukraine. I think...
Ear to the ground
18/02/2022
In a further sign that certain stocks are priced for perfection we saw another...
Ear to the ground
11/02/2022
Inflation again took centre stage on Thursday as the US released their latest figures. Headline...
Ear to the ground
04/02/2022
This week we expected the Bank of England meeting on Thursday to sit at the top of the agenda. However,
Monthly Update
31/01/2022
The Fund posted a return of -3.60% for January, outperforming the sector average return of -4.75%.
Ear to the ground
28/01/2022
All eyes were on the US Federal Reserve this week as they...
Ear to the ground
21/01/2022
This has certainly been a week for headlines. There does not...
Ear to the ground
14/01/2022
Inflation was back to taking centre stage this week with the release of the latest rate in the US. This came...
Ear to the ground
07/01/2022
Taking centre stage this week was the release of the minutes...
Monthly Update
23/12/2021
The Fund ended the month 1.21% higher, marginally underperforming the sector average return of 1.35%. Equity markets were generally stronger during the period,
Ear to the ground
23/12/2021
For those who enjoy a biscuit with their cuppa they may be wise to stock up now. McVitie’s became...
Ear to the ground
17/12/2021
Central banks took centre stage this week. First up...
Ear to the ground
10/12/2021
This week saw the release of US inflation, with the annual rate hitting 6.8% in November, the highest reading since June 1982. This marked the...
Ear to the ground
03/12/2021
It seemed rather fitting to start with a definition this week of what transitory actually means. For a prolonged period of time...
Monthly Update
30/11/2021
The Fund ended the month 0.85% lower in November following a difficult period for equity markets.
Ear to the ground
26/11/2021
This week saw the release of US inflation, with the annual rate hitting 6.8% in November,
Ear to the ground
19/11/2021
Inflation was again in the limelight this week, this time in the UK. Tuesday saw the release of average earnings data. Including...
Ear to the ground
12/11/2021
This week saw the first release of UK GDP for the 3rd quarter. This rose 1.3% on the quarter,
Ear to the ground
05/11/2021
This week the central banks again took centre stage. Unfortunately...
Monthly Update
31/10/2021
Equity markets were mixed during the period. The US equity market was strong,
Monthly Update
30/09/2021
The Fund rose marginally during the month, returning 0.07%. This represented outperformance of the IA Flexible Investment sector average, which posted a -1.11% return.
Monthly Update
31/08/2021
Buoyant equity markets helped the fund rise by 1.75% during the month. UK equities were one of the strongest performing, in particular mid and small cap stocks,
Coupon Clipping
18/08/2021
Within the MI Diversified Strategy Fund you will typically find an allocation to structured notes. We like these investments as they give a part of our portfolio definition,
Monthly Update
31/07/2021
The Fund fell -0.38% during the month, underperforming the IA Flexible Investment sector average return of 0.15%. The performance of equity markets was...
Monthly Update
30/06/2021
The Fund returned 1.12% during the month, underperforming the IA Flexible Investment sector average return of 1.96%. Equity markets were generally positive during the month when measured in their local currencies. The US led the way as...
Monthly Update
31/05/2021
The Fund returned -0.14% during the month, outperforming the IA Flexible Investment sector average return of -0.21%. Equity markets were generally positive during the month when measured in their local currencies. European equities proved...
Monthly Update
30/04/2021
The Fund returned 2.74% during the month, underperforming the IA Flexible Investment sector average return of 3.33%. Equity markets were generally positive during the month in local currency,
Monthly Update
31/03/2021
After a strong February, the Fund returned 0.76% during the month, underperforming the IA Flexible Investment sector average return of 1.70%. Equity markets were mixed during the month. There was divergence in the scale of returns with,
When A Little Means A Lot
30/03/2021
Sometimes in life it can be the small things that make all the difference and last week proved to be no exception. Having ititially struck on the 21 December 2018, one of our structured notes matured on the 22 March, being its second observation date after 2.25 years. An at the money contract,
Home Sweet Home
17/03/2021
There can be no doubt that 2020 was a difficult period for UK equities. Whilst all markets were troubled by the pandemic and economic lockdown, the UK suffered more than others. The market was penalised...
Monthly Update
28/02/2021
The Fund returned 1.42% during the month, outperforming the IA Flexible Investment sector average return of 0.61%. Equity markets generally ended the month in positive territory,
Monthly Update
31/01/2021
The Fund returned -0.24% during the month, only marginally behind the IA Flexible Investment sector average return of -0.11%. January ended with many equity markets in negative territory. In what...
Keeping Our Definition
04/01/2021
During the Christmas and New Year celebrations definition was perhaps the last thing on your mind. With all the additional goodies on offer, such as mince pies and a chocolate or two,
Monthly Update
31/12/2020
The Fund returned 2.45% during the month, only marginally behind the IA Flexible Investment sector average return of 2.58%. December was a positive month for equities and UK fixed...
Don't Break the Bond
20/12/2020
In the last week we have continued to see US equity market indicies attain record highs. At the same time however we have seen valuations continue to rise to such an extent that some investors may argue they are now overvalued. The latest data from...
Monthly Update
30/11/2020
The Fund returned 6.18% during the month, behind the IA Flexible Investment sector average return of 7.32%. Equity market returns were stronger during the month, buoyed by positive news regarding COVID-19 vaccines. High efficacy rates generated...
Monthly Update
31/10/2020
The Fund returned -1.16% during the month, ahead of the IA Flexible Investment sector average return of -1.25%. After a positive start to the month, equity performance waned as we approached month end. Markets in Europe and...
Monthly Update
30/09/2020
The Fund returned -0.82% during the month, behind the IA Flexible Investment sector average return of -0.37%. Equity markets were generally weaker during the month on a local currency basis, with the exception of Japan. There was also...
Monthly Update
31/08/2020
The Fund returned 2.26% during the month, marginally underperforming the IA Flexible Investment sector average return of 2.54%. Equity performance showed divergence in August,
Monthly Update
31/07/2020
The Fund outperformed the IA Flexible Investment sector average during the month, returning 1.34% against 0.14% respectively. Equity market performance was mixed during the period. In local currency...
Monthly Update
30/06/2020
The Fund lagged the IA Flexible Investment sector average during the month, returning 0.79%against 2.00% respectively. Equity markets were generally higher during the month,
Monthly Update
31/05/2020
The Fund posted a return in line with the IA Flexible Investment sector average during the month, returning 3.78% and 3.84% respectively. After their strong rebound in April...
Income Uncertainty
04/05/2020
COVID-19 and the lockdowns around the world, which subsequently ensued have had a marked and meaningful impact on the global economy. Whilst some countries have to date,
Monthly Update
30/04/2020
The Fund posted a return of 7.19% in April, in line with the IA Flexible Investment sector average return of 7.25%. Equity markets around the world were in positive territory for the month,
Monthly Update
31/03/2020
The Fund fell 12.29% during the month, underperforming the IA Flexible Investment sector, which fell 10.95%. This was a month which was dominated by the spread of the Coronavirus,
Stimulating Stuff
27/03/2020
Yesterday saw the chancellor announce yet another package to provide support to the UK economy as we all continue to deal with the impact COVID-19 is having on our lives, some unfortunately more than others. The latest support came for those...
Monthly Update
31/02/2020
The Fund fell 3.81% during the month, outperforming the IA Flexible Investment sector average which fell 4.67%. Equity markets initially proved resilient to the news regarding COVID-19,
Know What You Own and Why You Own It
27/02/2020
For a prolonged period of time now funds within the IA Targeted Absolute Return sector have come in for some abuse, normally related to their performance, or lack of it. In some respects...
A Defined Success
21/02/2020
Within the MI Diversified Strategy Fund you will typically find an allocation to structured notes, an asset class which we, the investment manager,
Coronavirus Update
31/01/2020
The advent of the coronavirus was the catalyst for an increase in volatility within stock markets in January. At the time of writing...
Monthly Update
31/01/2020
The Fund fell 0.71% during the month, marginally underperforming the IA Flexible Investment sector average which fell 0.49%. Equity markets were positive during...
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